if you look northwest from coon islands, thats the widest part of the bay and there will be some big swells/ chop even in 12 or 15mph.
Very good point, I didn't think to account for the bay shape. Well I'm going to need to keep my eyes on that forecast.
Actually for Saturday it's not too bad in theory if it sticks at what the current prediction:
SSW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Seas 1 ft or less.
That sounds like a weak front; but sounds like 10 knots is going to make Coon Island a no go at that point. 15 knts is probably my upper limit and only for a short paddle. I might need to be ready to shelter in place too if I see storms rolling in with it.
Think I'll modify the plan to suit the weather - get to coon island well before the front and the winds change; then back up to Palacios marsh/ protected areas once the storm rolls in (maybe even shelter in my truck if I can time it well enough).
Guess I always have a backup plan of surf fishing if it's looking too bad.